The Coronavirus – no need to worry, it’s no more dangerous than the flu (don’t you believe it!)

Some people appear rather complacent, and draw comparisons with the flu, saying that kills more people every year, so why worry? Here’s why….

First of all, the WHO is taking this very seriously – should we question their understanding of an infectious disease? They are professionals, and often highly qualified academics as well. If someone with a PhD in epidemiology says a disease is dangerous then I think that means, it’s dangerous. That or read the Daily Mail. It’s up to you.

A healthy human being can catch the flu, and it won’t kill them. Not in and of itself (OK - so in a very small number of cases it can kill by itself, but that is rare). So why do people die? Well, the flu lowers the strength of your immune system, then you catch some secondary infection – such as bacterial pneumonia – and that then kills you. However, COVID-19 is somewhat different. If you contract it, it is much more dangerous for some people. In 1-2% of cases, the disease leads to death. Admittedly many of the deaths have been in individuals who already have weakened immune systems. But the mortality rate is compelling.

And then there are the statistics. Finding comprehensive and reliable data is difficult. But at least let’s look at some figures from the US to get a feel for the numbers.

The US Centre for Disease Control estimates the number of people contracting flu in the US varies between 5% and 20%. They also estimate that the number of deaths per year varies between 12,000 and 79,000. This gives lower bound mortality of 0.07% and an upper bound of 0.12%. COVID-19 so far shows mortality of between 1% and 2%. That is, as a first-order approximation based on these figures, you are 10 to 20 times more likely to die from Coronavirus than from the flu. And don’t forget, COVID-19 does not need a secondary infection to kill you.

Finally, one of my friends here at UCL is an epidemiologist. She is taking it seriously. And she understands the issue deeply.

It’s got my attention. I hope it’s got yours. Wash your hands. Keep them away from your face. Avoid touching the things that many other people touch. Be kind and think about each other.